Towards a robust and efficient digital twin of the ocean
Funded by the “Ocean & Climate” Priority Research Program (PPR), the MEDIATION project targets two crucial questions: how do global ocean changes impact the functioning of regional marine ecosystems, and how can we effectively assess the effect of possible adaptation and preservation measures? The answer may lie in the creation of an oceanic digital twin that is robust and efficient enough for study and forecasting.
High-performance numerical models for understanding and forecasting
Our understanding of biogeochemical cycles and the dynamics of marine ecosystems in the ocean still faces many scientific challenges. This is all the more true in a changing ocean, impacted both by global warming and by the many anthropogenic pressures on its resources.
In recent decades, numerous numerical models have been developed by the community in an attempt to reproduce observed biogeochemical characteristics. But the huge diversity of living organisms, including dozens of different planktonic groups, and the many physical, biological and chemical parameters involved in the temporal and spatial variability of marine ecosystems, have made some models highly complex.
In this context, the MEDIATION project (for MEthodological Developments for a robust and efficient dIgitAl TwIn of the OceaN), which began in September 2022, aims to develop new methodologies for configuring a robust and efficient numerical twin of the living ocean. Its aim is to successfully combine, in an optimal way, different types of models, different simulations and a wide range of observations in a new, innovative numerical model dedicated to the study and prediction of biogeochemical elements within a dynamic ocean.
A multidisciplinary project and an innovative methodology
The project will use high-performance, robust and innovative methodologies to simulate the fate of various marine ecosystems subject to direct pressures (fishing and aquaculture, coastal management) or indirect pressures (impact of climate change on regional climate, continental land use, export of materials to the sea). Simulations will cover the entire French coastline, with a particular focus on the Bay of Biscay for fishing-related activities, and the Mediterranean Sea for biodiversity.
The project is led by scientific teams from INRIA, SHOM and IRD, with contributions from the universities of Aix Marseille and Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Ifremer, INP Toulouse, IMT Atlantique and Météo-France. MEDIATION will combine methodological developments in the digital sciences (focusing on uncertainties, high-performance computing and artificial intelligence) with advances in the modeling of physical, biogeochemical and biological processes in the ocean.
Assessing pressures on the ocean and sharing knowledge
Together, the scientists involved in the project will define the level of complexity required for model chains to assess ecosystem response to different scenarios. Their aim is also to better quantify, in order to reduce them, the uncertainties of the models and the projections they provide, while striving to reduce the runtimes of numerical simulations in order to increase efficiency and reduce energy consumption and carbon footprint. The production costs of these models must be reasonable, without compromising their reliability.
In addition, as part of an approach to sharing and co-constructing science with society, the project should enable non-experts to test scenarios interactively, in order to assess the impact of adaptation and mitigation measures. The results of the various simulations will need to be accessible to all, so that a consensus can be reached on the measures that need to be taken urgently in the context of the current crisis. This is crucial if truly viable solutions are to be put in place, and if they are to be accepted by decision-makers.
The MEDIATION project thus responds to two challenges of the “Ocean & Climate” PPR: on the one hand, to develop observation and modeling programs that are innovative, multidisciplinary, multi-parameter, multi-scale and multi-actor; on the other hand, to set up an innovative tool capable of enlightening decision-makers, and helping solutions to emerge in favor of sustainable exploitation of its resources.
